A Quick Recap of DBA SP

With Greinke's bidding at 25M I started looking at the state of the SP in the rest of the DBA.  Crazy money is being spent on all of the SP in the bidding so far.  And, after some research, it doesn't look like it will change.

Koufax

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Ridgecrest -- Lester, Lilly, Pelfrey, Looper and Myers man an impressive staff.  When you add in RFA rights to Harden, it will be tough for any team to match this one 1-5.

Elkhart Lake -- Burnett, Garland, Bush, Lannan and Weaver occupy the starting spots so far.  ELR has capped itself out, so don't look for any improvements.

Ottawa -- Vazquez, Guthrie and Kamir are the only knowns in the rotation at this time.  RFA rights to Cliff Lee plus another high-grade signing pushes the staff into second.

Cleveland -- Hudson is about the only FT SP on the staff.  The next spot will be occupied by a combo of Wang and Bedard.  And the third spot by Hochevar and Baek.  Look for CLE to throw some serious money at Dempster, Wellemeyer and possibly Young.

Y-D Screaming -- If Santana and Beckett could start 80 games each, this would be "THE" staff.  However, it falls off dramatically with Zito and the three-headed monster of Joba, Clay and Harrison.  This staff could jump dramatically next year, but not now.  Nolasco or Slowey would be a nice addition.

West Huron --  No Santana here.  Verlander, Eveland and Silva/Contreras will head up the bottom staff in the division.  With a little spending on say Garza, Saunders, Wolf, Dempster, Lowe or Wakefield, WHW could move nearer to OTT.  But it will take some work.

Gibson

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Lehigh Valley -- Johan, Haren, Moseley, Byrd and Dice-K make the top staff in the Gibson.  If LVP upgrades at all, it won't even be close.

Rio Brazos -- Halladay, Lincecum, Danks, Parra and Sanchez are a high quality rotation that will only get better.  Look for RBC to make some noise with Saunders, Greinke, Slowey and maybe Wainwright in order to pull closer to the top.

Saint Gabriel -- Sabathia, Big Z, Big Unit and Boof/Ballester make up the "best of the rest" in the division.  A couple of good bargains will be needed to maintain it.  RFA rights to Arroyo will help, but not much.

Homer -- Blanton, Jurrjens, Gallaraga and Maine provide a solid #1-#4.  Picking up a high quality SP will vault HSD into the #3 spot here.

Lebanon -- Shields, Cueto and Robertson/Carmona is all LEB has right now.  Look at runs at Garza, Slowey and maybe Wakefield.  The rest of the rotation will be filler as LEB looks to the future.

Carbondale -- Blackburn and the rest make up the bottom staff in the Gibson.  CDC has the money to go many different ways here.  Rebuild with Garza, Wainright and Slowey?  Pull some cards with Lowe and Wakefield?  The way to the top is long this year.  Look for Wainright and Morrow to be Dog Catchers as the season starts and the rebuilding begins.

In these two divisions alone, there are 11 SP holes and another 15 SP upgrade possibilities.  The wave of mediocre SP getting 8+ M is still with us, I fear.

Ballpark Modifications Due December 15th

We have made some changes to the Ballpark Section of the constitution this year.  I've put them here for everyone's information ...

Section 4 – BALLPARKS (Amended November 2008)

DIMENSIONS: All DBA owners will build their ballpark with any combination of dimensions allowable by SOM.

COST: Ballparks are static from year to year.  This means that ballpark dimensions used last year for that franchise will be used for the current year.  In order to change those dimensions, an owner must use treasury money.  The cost to change one (1) dimension of the ballpark by the first point is 250k.  Each point of change thereafter will cost double the previous point of change.  For example, the first point of change costs 250k, the second costs 500k, the third costs 1M, and so on. 

DEMOLITION RULE:  If the total cost of changing your ballpark dimensions would exceed 40M, that cost is capped at 40M and the park is demolished.  Any ballpark can be demolished as long as that franchise has been using that ballpark for at least three (3) years.

TAXPAYER RULE: When a franchise is taken over by a new owner, that new owner can petition the taxpayers one time for a “free demolition” of their ballpark.  That owner will get 40M added to its treasury for the purposes of demolishing the ballpark.

NOTE: This Section was amended after the 2008 season.  All current owners can get a single “free demolition” as well.

DOUBLES/TRIPLES RULE: An owner will adopt a MLB ballpark and use its BP doubles and BP triples rating. The MLB ballpark can only be changed if the ballpark is demolished. This ballpark will also be used as the BP image for that team's stadium.  Multiple teams can use the same MLB ballpark.

Current ballpark information can be found on the forum.  We have six new owners for this year.  All of those franchises are exempt from the new rules for this year only.  They will not have to pay for any dimensions to their new ballparks.  All other owners must follow these rules in creating their ballparks for the 2009 season.

Please post on the forum with your new dimensions.  They will be due December 15th.  

SP Scott Baker, 33M, FFF

11/24/2008 18:59:50 : Fairfax offered $33,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/24/2008 18:42:41 : Altenberg offered $31,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/24/2008 17:22:11 : Lehigh Valley offered $30,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/24/2008 17:19:52 : Lehigh Valley offered $29,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/24/2008 17:16:30 : Normandy Lake (LAS) offered $28,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/24/2008 16:57:10 : Fairfax offered $27,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/24/2008 15:15:55 : Lehigh Valley offered $26,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/24/2008 07:18:45 : Homer (SJS) offered $25,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/23/2008 19:46:12 : Denver (BAY) offered $24,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/23/2008 19:19:36 : Carbondale offered $22,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/23/2008 19:07:22 : Lehigh Valley offered $20,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/23/2008 19:06:18 : Carbondale offered $16,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/20/2008 16:48:13 : Lehigh Valley offered $15,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/19/2008 22:21:28 : Homer (SJS) offered $10,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/16/2008 08:35:40 : Carbondale offered $9,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/15/2008 21:43:14 : Lehigh Valley offered $8,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/15/2008 20:04:25 : Homer (SJS) offered $7,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/15/2008 07:50:40 : Lehigh Valley offered $6,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/14/2008 11:59:45 : Carbondale offered $4,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/14/2008 10:47:12 : Saint Gabriel offered $3,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/13/2008 19:17:22 : Carbondale offered $1,000,000 per year for 1 year.

Eight different teams put in bids for Baker's services.  For three years of service, Baker received a 33M bid from FFF.  His numbers suggest potential #1/#2 starter and the going rate last year was around 10M per year.  To get him at a 6.75M cap figure looks like a steal.

With that addition, Fairfax edged ahead of a solild Altenberg staff to lead the newly formed Williams Division.

Fairfax has Hamels, Webb, Cain and Baker in the mix.  Look for heavy bidding on Greinke, Saunders and maybe even Garza.  With Duchscherer as a RFA, look for FFF to maintain its #1 staff rating throughout the Auction as well.

Altenberg has Buehrle, Floyd, Lohse, Greg Smith and Lackey as its starting five.  ALT is a very close second in the division and will give Fairfax a run for its money if it can improve with the likes of Cliff Lee, Garza, Greinke or Saunders.

Burmese comes in a solid third in the division with Olsen, Volquez, Perez, Peavy and Marquis, plus other spot starters.  BBM has always prided itself on a deep rotation and this year won't be any different.  If the price is right, look at a possible Lowe or Wakefield pick-up at the Auction to further solidify its #3 ranking.

Normandy Lake, aka LAS, comes out in fourth place with solid seasons from Meche, Maholm, Jimenez, Sheets and Francis.  LAS/NLS has a long way to go to challenge the top spot in the divison.  With the change in ownership, maybe the pockets will be a bit deeper for the likes of Garza, Wolf, Saunders, Wellemeyer or Nolasco?  A few upgrades could move the staff into the upper-half.

Denver, aka BAY, settles into fifth place at this time.  However, its rotation is anything but settled.  Oswalt, Kuroda and Litsch are the only starters on the staff.  Those three have the makings of a #2/#3 staff in the division, with the right pieces.  Already active in the bidding, will DEN continue to spend picking up a Garza, Grienke, Rodriguez or Wolf now?  Or will waiting on a Dempster or Slowey be the better bet?

Bloomington rounds out the division mainly because of the same reason as DEN, not much on the staff right now.  King Felix, Billingsley and Gallagher lead quite a few part-timers.  I'm guessing a few are thrust into a reliever role after the Auction in February.  BSK has rights to Wellemeyer, and I expect them to match any reasonable offer.  I don't see much action from them in the bidding, but do expect heavy play on Dempster, Slowey, Morrow, Lowe and maybe even Wakefield.  Depending on how much money is off the board prior to the Auction, any of those SP could help BSK steal its way back into the upper-half.

Tidbits on Auction 2008

Last year, 159 RFA/FA were selected at the Auction.  2.275B was spent on 159 free agents.  We had 11 players make 10M+, 49 players make 5M+ and 53 players make 2M or less.

Using those percentages, it looks like we will have only around 100, which will make for a much shorter day for everyone.

Only seven players should top 10M+ and only 40 should top 5M+.  Another 40 should make league minimum.  There is only 500M left in cap room on rosters right now, which is much lower than the over 700M last year.  However, with the contraction the total treasuries are up 500M.

What this might mean is the superstars get shorter contracts, but more CAP.  Instead of getting a 9/90 deal, expect a 7/75 deal instead.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the bidding shapes up.  We have 27 left and some just might get 20M+ in bids.  If that happens, the bargains could be had come auction day!

Two OF Over the Weekend ...

OF Torii Hunter, 15M, RBC

11/21/2008 23:10:14 : Rio Brazos offered $15,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/19/2008 19:06:13 : Rio Brazos offered $12,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/18/2008 20:49:05 : Denver (BAY) offered $11,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/15/2008 07:46:54 : Burmese offered $9,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/15/2008 06:54:44 : West Huron offered $7,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/14/2008 19:06:51 : Burmese offered $5,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/14/2008 12:11:57 : Lehigh Valley offered $1,000,000 per year for 1 year.

OF Vlad Guerrero, 16M, CDC

11/23/2008 18:36:33 : Carbondale offered $16,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/23/2008 18:30:55 : Denver (BAY) offered $15,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/23/2008 18:26:26 : Lehigh Valley offered $13,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/23/2008 18:21:30 : Carbondale offered $12,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/23/2008 18:12:01 : Burmese offered $11,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/23/2008 13:23:46 : Carbondale offered $10,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/23/2008 00:01:11 : Burmese offered $9,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/22/2008 16:42:58 : Ridgecrest offered $8,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/18/2008 20:47:26 : Denver (BAY) offered $7,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/14/2008 15:30:50 : Lehigh Valley offered $2,000,000 per year for 1 year.

A pair of 33 year old OF were taken over the weekend, one for 15M, the other 16M.  As you can see, Vlad's bidding was very heavy the final day, especially the final hour.

Torii will be making 7M per year until 2012.  Vlad will be making 7M per year until 2010.  What will be out there in that price range come Auction Day?

Matt Holliday (LEB): 29 yrs, 613 PA, 900+ OPS -- LEB has been shopping Matt's rights since this off-season began, but nothing has come of it so far.  I expect Holliday to be franchised at 5 years, and most likely walk away when the bidding reaches 41M+.  He's #1A.

Manny Ramirez (OTT): 37 yrs, 639 PA, 1000+ OPS -- Rumor has it Manny is asking for a mega-deal from the World Champion Beavers.  Look for OTT to slap a 7 year franchise tag on M-Ram and watch him walk with the first bid.  He's #1B.

Adam Dunn (FFF): 29 yrs, 639 PA, 900+ OPS -- Homer-machine Dunn was nearly #1C, but his "hit-or-miss" mentality won't play in some parks.  Dunn's one reason Fairfax is seeking financial assistance to hastily build a new stadium this winter :-).  FFF will let Dunn hit the market and use the home town discount to keep him in the fold at below-market for a superstar OF.

Milton Bradley (FA): 31 yrs, 494 PA, 1000+ OPS -- This screams a two-year, 22M contract!  Bradley put up a career year and will reap a nice short-term bounty, unless someone sneaks in a 5/25 as the second bid.

Shin-Soo Choo (FA): 26 yrs, 361 PA, 900+ OPS -- A relatively unknown compared to the other guys on this list, but Choo is the real deal.  His numbers alone will get him 5M per year; his talent should get him a 5/35 deal in any economy.

There are 10 more including Vlad and Torii that fall into the above-average OF range.  Each should get 5M+ per year.  

 

DH Travis Hafner becomes FA in February ...

Our first player with no bid!  Hafner will become available in the FA portion of the February Auction.

SS Khalil Greene, 1M, SJS/HSD

In a surprise move, HSD put a token bid out on Greene only to see it take the SS.  As posted earlier, I thought Greene's contract was just too much to take on, especially with the rest of the SS crop out there.  I was wrong.

Look for HSD to resign their SS as a two-headed platoon and remain out of the Reyes/Bartlett/Tejada bidding.  Before this, mid-tier SS were going to see 6-7M per year bids.  Now, I don't expect them getting more than 5M.  Reyes will still get his 6/62 deal, but Barlett will now be matched by LEB at 4/20 and Tejada will be lucky to see a 3/15 deal.

SP Jeremy Bonderman, 1M, CDC

11/14/2008 14:39:12 : Carbondale offered $1,000,000 per year for 1 year.

Bonderman is under contract until 2012 at 8.17M per year.  When healty, he's a potential ace, which is what CDC is betting on by taking a 1M gamble.  I didn't expect Jeremy to get a bid at all.  In the February Auction, there are 4 more potential "aces" up for grabs.

Duchscherer (FFF): 22 GS, 1.00 whip, 31 yrs old

Cliff Lee (OTT): 31 GS, 1.11 whip, 30 yrs old

Rich Harden (RID): 25 GS, 1.06 whip, 27 yrs old

Kuo (FA): 3 GS {80 IP}, 1.01 whip, 27 yrs old

I wouldn't be surprised to see all of these players getting 4+ year deals in excess of 9M per year.

15 starters fall into the #1/#2 slot on most teams ...

Wellemeyer (BSK): 32 GS, 1.25, 30

Young (LEB): 18 GS, 1.29, 29

Baker (bidding): 28 GS, 1.18, 27

Garza (bidding): 30 GS, 1.24, 25

Greinke (bidding): 32 GS, 1.28, 25

Marshall (bidding): 7 GS, 1.27, 26

Wandy Rodriguez (bidding): 25 GS, 1.31, 30

Saunders (bidding): 31 GS, 1.21, 27

Wainwright (bidding): 20 GS, 1.18, 27

Dempster (FA): 33 GS, 1.21, 32

Lowe (FA): 34 GS, 1.13, 36

Morrow (FA): 5 GS, 1.14, 24

Nolasco (FA): 32 GS, 1.11, 26

Slowey (FA): 27 GS, 1.15, 24

Wakefield (FA): 30 GS, 1.18, 42

These FA/RFA should get 3+ year deals in excess of 7M per year.  I can see why the SP in the bidding process are getting 20+ M bids!

Troy Tulowitzki, 60M, ELR

On November 18th, Troy Tulowitzki's 7 year, 9.25M per year contract was purchased by ELR for 60M.  It was an interesting bidding process ...

11/18/2008 18:59:02 : Elkhart Lake offered $60,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/18/2008 18:55:24 : Altenberg offered $53,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/16/2008 12:24:55 : Elkhart Lake offered $50,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/14/2008 11:59:10 : Carbondale offered $31,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/14/2008 09:30:41 : Elkhart Lake offered $30,000,000 per year for 1 year.
11/13/2008 19:16:33 : Carbondale offered $26,000,000 per year for 1 year.

It looked like ELR would get a "steal" at 50M as late as 6:55pm, but ALT jumped in with 53M.  ELR then locked it away with a 60M offer.

After seeing Tulo go, I was wondering what the Auction would look like at the SS position for this year.  Right now, four teams (BAY/DEN, LVP, SJS/HSD, YDL) don't have a FT SS on the roster.  The other 14 do, but of varying quality.  Here's what's available ...

Khalil Greene, bidding process, 7.5M per year until 2011: 411 PA, 213/255/339 ... Can you say ouch?  He's 29 and plays average defense.  Will there be a bid?  Should there?  There's much better out there to be sure.

Jose Reyes, QUI RFA: 753 PA, 295/357/475 ... The cream of the SS crop, if not the entire Auction process.  QUI/CLE signed Aviles in the rookie draft.  I'm guessing that is insurance in case Jose walks.  But, I'm not sure that will happen.  Slap a FrRFA tag on him for 6 years and either resign a Top 5 SS for below market value or cash in on the 12M and 1st rounder.  Look for LVP to be heavy into the Reyes bidding.

Jason Bartlett, LEB RFA: 476 PA, 286/319/361 ... A solid, but not spectacular SS.  He'll get some bidding because of the PA, as only two other SS (Tejada and Lopez) have more.  Defense should be above average.  Look for DEN or HSD to make a play for this guy, but LEB to match.

Juan Uribe, SJS RFA: 346 PA, 247/295/386 ... Shouldn't get any bidding whatsover with those numbers.  If HSD doesn't pry Bartlett away from LEB, he might get a 1/2 as insurance.

Miguel Tejada, FA: 656 PA, 283/309/415 ... Bidding should be short-term and fairly heavy.  After the RFA portion, Miggy will get heavy bidding from HSD and YDL; possibly LVP.  If its a three-way, look for him to make some serious money.  If its two, I think a 2/8 or 3/14 gets him.  The loser will walk away with ...

Felipe Lopez, FA: 524 PA, 283/342/387 ... Should be decent offensively, but horrible defensively.  Lopez will fill one of the vacant FT SS holes in the league at a nearly FA minimum of 1/2.  Look for a MAX of 3/9.

Clint Barmes, FA: 410 PA, 290/320/468 ... He's basically Lopez with more power.  Bidding could be split on them both.  And he ends the FT SS class.  If you need one of these guys, you could get a 2M steal if you just wait it out.

Backups that might see some bidding are ... Ronny Cedeno, Alex Cintron, David Eckstein, Julio Lugo, Ramon Santiago and Ben Zobrist.  In this market, the backups shouldn't get more than a 2/5 deal.

Short stops currently manning FT positions are ... Yu-Bet (ALT), Peralta (BBM), Rollins (BSK), Young (CDC), Cabrera/Tulo (ELR), Renteria (FFF), H-Ram (ILL), Crosby/Drew (LAS), Escobar (LEB), Jeter (OTT), Aviles (QUI), Theriot (RBC), Guzman (RID), Hardy (WHW)

If any of those teams decide they need to add another short stop to their mix, the end result could be some pretty high salaries for the FT FA SS.

2009 Rookie Draft Underway ...

Now with the draft underway, you should find more posts on this blog.  The last month has been crazy at home, at work, and in the DBA.  I just couldn't find time to blog.

LOTTERY

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The lottery picks went exactly as I had planned.  I had Longoria, Bruce, Soto, Volquez, Joba and Kershaw going in the lottery.  That's where they all went, just not in the order I had projected.  The top three went in order, Longoria, Soto and Volquez.  Then, CDC passed on Joba, taking Bruce instead.  YDL jumped all over Joba at #5, and Homer traded away #6 to OTT, who promptly took Kershaw.

SURPRISES SO FAR

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We are already to pick 26, which is a great pace.  Odds are we will be finished by Thanksgiving, which was an internal goal.  The clock will be reduced to 12 hours tomorrow.  It should have been reduced yesterday, but I had issues with how to set that up.  Those issues have been resolved.

#1) Aviles at 19 -- I'm not as high on this guy as it looks like most other owners are.  I had him lasting into the 4th round, pick 79.  To me, this looks like the worst pick so far.  However, the blogs have Aviles' defense as underrated.  If he sneaks in a 2, this could be right on the money.  He's 28, so don't expect him to repeat his 325 BA. -- MISSED BY 60!!!

#2) Davis at 14 -- I like Chris Davis, especially is power display.  He slugged 549 in 315 PA for Texas last year.  He's just 22, so I expect even better numbers in the years to come.  But I projected him as a late 2nd, early 3rd pick at 50.  I don't see this as too far of a stretch.  I would have liked to see another year before slapping down a multi-year commitment. -- MISSED BY 36!

#3) Blackburn at 25 -- I like Blackburn as well.  He looked like one of the starters that would be there in the third round when I made my selection :-).  Alas, he's not.  His upside is limited as he doesn't miss many bats, but he is only 27.  He will need to be extra careful next year if he wants to repeat his 1.36 WHIP.  --- MISSED BY 35!

#4) Sandoval at 18 -- This San Fran catcher has come out of nowhere to post an awesome season in MLB.  At 22, he has a bright future ahead of him.  I just didn't see it as a first round future.  Like Davis, I would have liked to see another season before giving him a multi-year deal.  But a 3/9 isn't that big of a risk, since he should see a ton of PA next season and his card will be top-notch this year.  I predicted Sandoval at 52.  But it seems he was on everyone's radar, not just mine :-) --- MISSED BY 34!

I still have five "first-round talent" picks on my lists.  I'll be incredibly happy if any one of them fall to my pick at 45.