Post-Auction Analysis ...

• 2009 Auction -- 1.45B spent, 344 yrs, 131 players, 2.6/11 average.
  
• 570M spent on bidding process brings off-season spending on free agents to 2.02B.
  

PREDICTION -- Jose Reyes, SS, should have the highest TREAS spent at the Auction.  Since CLE has matching rights, I can see this possibly dipping below 10M CAP.  Something like a 8/80 isn't out of the question here. --- Reyes got a 9/81 deal, biggest TREAS of the auction ... good prediction :-).

PREDICTION -- Cliff Lee, SP, should have the highest CAP at the Auction.  FFF has matching rights but I don't see him matching the 4/45 deal that Lee is likely to see. --- Lee only got a 5/30 deal, 15M lower than I expected, and did get matched at 6 years by FFF.  The CAP wasn't even in the Top 20! ... bad prediction :-(.

PREDICTION -- Manny Ramirez, LF, is an interesting case.  As of this writing, he is still unsigned in the MLB.  I don't think it stays that way, but it will throw some uncertainty into bidding.  I'm guessing a 2/26 type deal is in the mix.  OTT matches that at 3/26. --- Manny, being Manny, got the HIGH CAP of the auction at 11M per.  He settled on a 2/33, matched to 3/33, slightly higher than predicted. ... good prediction :-).

PREDICTION -- Kerry Wood, RP, could see a contract like the one he received in MLB, 2/20.  BBM matches that at 3/20 hopes Wood doesn't turn into BJ Ryan before the contract expires. --- Wood just got a 2/10 bid, matched at 3/10.  One of the steals of the auction, IMHO. --- bad prediction :-(.

PREDICTION -- Ryan Dempster, SP, could be the next Brad Radke of the DBA getting a 5/50 deal for no apparent reason at all.  He should have a great card this year, but I don't see him maintaining this level of dominance in the future.  If he doesn't get 3/27, I'll be shocked. --- I'm shocked, but is wasn't life-threatening!  Demp got a 3/22 deal, which puts him in the Top 10. --- average prediction :-().

PREDICTION -- Nate Mclouth, OF, should be the darling of the Auction.  He's just entering the prime of his career, had a monster break-out season in MLB and signed a sweet RL deal to boot.  10M isn't out of the question here, especially with his 1 defense.  I think he falls a bit shy, inking a 5/45 deal. --- Nate falls out of the Top 10 with a 5/32 deal, about 13M shy of my prediction. --- bad prediction :-(.

Overall, I aimed a bit high on 5 of 6.  I guess its better to allocate too much CAP than too little.  Two goods, one average and three bad.  I don't like those odds.

More Auction Stats

----------------------

60% of the deals were 1 or 2 years.

96 of the 131 deals were for 4M CAP or less.

13 deals of 30M+ TREAS; 5 were FrRFAs.

10 deals of 7M+ CAP; 4 were FrRFAs.

Top Six TREAS Contracts

-----------------------------

Reyes (9/81), Cabrera FrRFA (8/64), Harden FrRFA (5/40), Nolasco (5/38), Nathan FrRFA (5/37), Jones (6/37)

Top Six CAP Contracts

--------------------------

Ramirez (3/33), Lowe (2/19), Reyes, Cabrera FrRFA, Harden FrRFA, Nolasco

Contracts Over 5 years

---------------------------

Reyes, Cabrera FrRFA, Jones FrRFA, Dunn (6/33), Lee (6/30), Molina (6/30)